Impacts of a Colorado River Shortage Declaration
Lake Mead's water levels are declining due to prolonged drought. In response, the Bureau of Reclamation asked Colorado Basin States to develop new drought contingency plans to reduce water usage from Lake Mead. This project explored the effects of reduced surface water supplies on crop production and other sectors in Pinal County, economic effects to Arizona dairy production, and recreational demand around Lakes Mead and Powell.
As Arizona’s Drought Contingency Plan was under negotiation in 2018– 2019, CLIMAS research estimated that a potential reduction in Colorado River water allocation to Pinal County could result in a loss of millions in agricultural sales and hundreds of jobs. State legislators, water resource departments, and local irrigation districts referred to economic impact analyses from this project to inform drought planning decisions.
"I asked George to summarize his study findings so we could add them to the 2022 Arizona Drought Preparedness annual report. This report is not only intended for the public and general audiences, but it's also sent to the Governor's office. It is our way of keeping the Governor's office up to date about everything drought that we do in the state. Presentations from this research also provided a way to have new and reliable information based on research, that policymakers could use when they talk about the Colorado River situation, and negotiations with different states."
- Nemesis Ortiz-Declet, Arizona Department of Water Resources
CLIMAS Lead: George Frisvold
Research Team: Ashley Bickel, Dari Duval, Chenyang Hu, Xin Qiao, Xiaoting Wu
Publications
Frisvold, G. (2024). Arizona Policy Responses to Water Shortage: Can They Have an Impact? Choices Magazine, 39, 1–10.
Frisvold, G. B., & Atla, J. (2024). Agricultural Economic Water Productivity Differences across Counties in the Colorado River Basin. Hydrology, 11(8), 125. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11080125
Frisvold, G. B., & Duval, D. (2024). Agricultural Water Footprints and Productivity in the Colorado River Basin. Hydrology, 11(1), 5. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11010005
Bickel, A. K., Duval, D., & Frisvold, G. B. (2019). Simple Approaches to Examine Economic Impacts of Water Reallocations from Agriculture. Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 168(1), 29–48. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1936-704X.2019.03319.x
Hu, C. (2019). Econometric Analysis of the Arizona Alfalfa Market. University of Arizona.
Wu, X. (2019). Recreation Visits to Lake Mead and Glen Canyon National Recreation Areas: A Replication Study. University of Arizona.
Bickel, A. K., Duval, D., & Frisvold, G. (2018). Contribution of On-Farm Agriculture and Agribusiness to the Pinal County Economy: Economic Contribution Analyses for 2016. https://www.resolutionmineeis.us/documents/bickel-duval-frisvold-2018
Qiao, X. (2018). Water Use and Climate Effects on Farm Profitability in the Colorado Basin. University of Arizona.
Media
Drought plan fight between Arizona farms and cities escalates. 2020. Arizona Daily Star.
As Water Sources Dry Up, Arizona Farmers Feel the Heat of Climate Change. 2019. Civil Eats.
District-Funded Study Says Farming Contributes $2.3 Billion to Pinal County. 2019. Phoenix New Times.
New Year, Same Challenges — What's Next for Arizona? 2018. Arizona PBS Affiliate KUAT Arizona 360.
Understanding Water Challenges for Agricultural Communities. 2018. Arizona PBS Affiliate KUAT Arizona 360.