Nov 2014 SW Climate Podcast: A Warm End to Autumn and Waiting for ENSO


In the November Southwest Climate Podcast, Ben McMahan and Mike Crimmins discuss the warm autumn weather in the southwest, the transition to winter weather patterns, the ongoing uncertainty of El Niño forecasts, a recap of El Niño conditions and definitions, and the possibility of interaction between El Niño conditions and weather patterns in the southwest looking forward.

Intro 0:00
A Wet and Warm Autumn: Warmer than average temps, higher than average humidity, and a recent "cold" snap 1:00
Recap of 2014 Tropical Storm Season: A more active season in the E Pacific 7:30
El Niño Forecast Models: More on how El Niño is defined, models that go into them, and the current state of "now-casting" 13:44
El Niño Definition: Revisiting a more precise definition of El Niño and the conditions we might expect (if it ever arrives) 22:00
Looking toward the Future: Impact of El Niño conditions on the SW, and looking forward into 2015 27:00
Recap on Long Term Forecasts & Looking Forward 34:00

If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido ( or Ben McMahan ( with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook

Also, as we mentioned last month, we have a new podcast feature: video mini-segments from the podcast. We have four segments posted from previous podcasts, including:

And we have decided to release approximate transcripts of the podcast.

Suggested Source/Citation:

CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2014). A Warm End to Autumn and Waiting for ENSO. [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: [Date Accessed]

Audio file

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The Southwest Climate Podcast