June 2019 Southwest Climate Podcast - Astonishment re: May & Monsoon Preseason Edition


In the June edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the astonishingly good run of weather the Southwest experienced in May. This busted their bet game of how many 100 degree days in May (there were zero! - Mike bet 2, Zack bet 5-6) but they'll take that loss every year if they could. They also discuss what this has meant for drought, snowpack, streamflow, and fire risk, and compare monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns with long term averages. They finish with an extended preview of the monsoon, including a discussion about how difficult it can be to predict the exact onset of the monsoon, despite a pretty regular start date, as well as the challenge of forecasting intensity given how variable the monsoon can be.

They also run down some friendly wagers on monsoon totals (June 15 - Sept 30) - with Mike (not surprisingly) picking climatology (6.1 inches), Zack going bullish at 110% of average, and Ben veering pessimist at 75% of average. They also introduce a new "fantasy monsoon" game that splits the season into 3 periods for them to pick stations in the Southwest they think might over-perform compared to climatology. For the June 15 - July 15 period, Mike picked Douglas, Nogales, and Gila Hot Springs, and Zack picked Organ Pipe, Kitt Peak, and Tucson. Next month they'll recap their first period scores, and pick 3 new stations for the middle period of the monsoon. Tune into the podcast for details (and we'll include running totals on the CLIMAS website and in the SW Climate Outlook each month).

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The Southwest Climate Podcast