Southwest Climate Outlook August 2008

August Climate Summary
Drought – Monsoon precipitation and heavy rains from Hurricane Dolly have
improved drought status for most of New Mexico; nearly all of Arizona remains abnormally
dry with improvement in drought status occurring only in the Southeast.
Temperature – During the past 30 days, northern and western Arizona generally
were 1–4 degrees F above average. In New Mexico, the higher elevations and southwestern
areas saw 1–3 degree F below-average temperatures, while the remainder of
the state had 1–3 degrees F above-average temperatures.
Precipitation – The White Mountains and the far southeastern corner of Arizona
have been relatively wet. Central New Mexico has received 130–300 percent of normal
precipitation and the Navajo Nation area has received only 5–25 percent of average.
Monsoon – Monsoon precipitation since July 1 has been above average in most of
the Southwest; southeast Arizona and most of New Mexico have receive more than
125 percent of average rainfall, with some locations receiving more than 200 percent.
ENSO – ENSO is in a neutral phase with conditions characterized by slightly
above-average eastern Pacific and slightly below-average western Pacific sea surface
temperatures (SSTs); the entire basin has near-average SSTs.
Climate Forecasts – Slightly above-average temperatures in Arizona and New Mexico
between May and July are mostly consistent with the long-lead temperature forecast.
The Bottom Line – Monsoon storms have delivered variable but copious amounts of
precipitation. In many parts of New Mexico, monsoon rain is above average. These rains
have helped New Mexico experience widespread short-term drought improvements. Extremely
dry conditions in northern Arizona counties have harmed many crops.