Sky Island Alliance

Drought risks and vulnerability varies within regional stakeholder networks. This project aimed to better characterize the complexity of drought vulnerability in the Lower San Pedro watershed. CLIMAS investigators engaged with a mix of stakeholders with shared interest in better understanding how drought and climate vulnerability might shape future climate risks. The project takes a local-to-regional perspective on drought and climate vulnerability and asks how that could inform a drought early warning system.

Resource managers face major challenges in developing medium- and long-term management plans considering the uncertainty arising from various climatic and socioeconomic factors. One approach to circumventing what can be a paralyzing level of uncertainty is Scenario Planning. This approach allows managers to “embrace uncertainty” and strategically prepare for a wide range of possible futures. In this project, we worked with the Cienegas Watershed Partnership to develop a set of scenario narratives, with specific scenario sets for each of four resource areas: Montane, Upland, Riparian, and Cultural. Participants were challenged to consider uncertainties and potential changes in climate, social, technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that are beyond the control of the Cienegas Watershed Partnership. Under the auspices of Scenario Planning, each resource group was able to consider and discuss future sets of conditions and management challenges that generally do not get a lot of attention.

Three newsletters were distributed to middle and upper management personnel across the various state and federal organizations that were involved in this project to keep them apprised of our progress.

Sky Island Alliance is working with partners including the NOAA-funded Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), the Udall Foundation U.S. Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution, EcoAdapt, the University of Arizona Institute of the Environment, and School of Natural Resources and the Environment to connect leading planners and thinkers in natural resource management and conservation with experts on regional climate impacts and adaptation. Through this project researchers seek to increase resilience in the region by ensuring implementation of climate-smart, landscape level management and conservation. Tools include a climate change adaptation survey, the Arizona Climate Change Network (Sky Island Alliance), and climate change adaptation workshops.