June Climate Summary
Drought– Drought conditions have remained steady in Arizona but have worsened in New Mexico. Dry and unusually warm weather during the past 30 days caused the area of abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions across northern Arizona to expand eastward into eastern and central New Mexico.
Temperature– While spring generally has been cooler than average, temperatures have been 0–5 degrees F above average in eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico in the past 30 days.
Precipitation– Spring is historically the driest time of the year and storms that passed over the region in the past 30 days contained little moisture. Most of New Mexico and Arizona have received less than 75 percent of average precipitation, while many southern regions have received less than 5 percent of average.
ENSO– The NOAA–Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Watch, which means that conditions are favorable for a La Niña event to form within the next three months. A rapid shift toward cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the past month helps indicate a developing La Niña event.
Climate Forecasts– Temperature outlooks show an increased likelihood of above-average temperatures in the Southwest for the summer and fall. It is unclear how the monsoon season will unfold, and precipitation forecasts state equal chances of below-, near-, or above-average rainfall. During the fall, there are increased chances for below-average precipitation.
The Bottom Line– Many parts of the Southwest have experienced dry and hot weather, particularly eastern New Mexico where temperatures have been around 5 degrees F warmer than average. Many parts of the Southwest also have received less than 5 percent of average rainfall, helping to prime the region for fire activity. The Monsoon forecast suggests that storms will arrive on time or slightly later than the historical average, according to the National Weather Service.