September 2026: El Niño Highlight

El Niño conditions in the Pacific have been strengthening, with recent sea surface temperatures along the equator in the east central Pacific rising into the range that qualifies the event for Very Strong El Niño status, the highest of four categories of El Niño strength. El Niño is expected to continue strengthening before peaking some time before the end of the year, but El Niño conditions will very likely persist into spring.

Enhanced tropical storm activity in the East Pacific, associated with El Niño events, has been contributing to recent waves of excessive precipitation in the Southwest. Tropical storm activity will continue in October but impacts to the Southwest will be contingent on interactions with the varying large-scale wind patterns and other weather systems.

El Niño conditions through the cool season means increased chances of above normal precipitation, fall–spring

A stronger El Niño does not necessarily translate to greater impacts on seasonal climate in the Southwest, but it does lend increased confidence to the forecast of a general tendency toward wetter-than-normal conditions.

See more in  ENSO Tracker