August 2004 Climate Summary
Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues for much of the Southwest.
• Storage has decreased in many reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico.
• Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at their lowest levels in over 30 years.
• Far eastern New Mexico is no longer in short-term drought.
Precipitation – Precipitation for the water year remains below 90 percent of average through mid-August for much of the Southwest. Eastern New Mexico experienced wetter-than-average conditions over the past 45 days.
Temperature – New Mexico and eastern Arizona have been generally cooler than average over the past 30 days. Temperatures for the remainder of Arizona were slightly above average.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate slightly increased probabilities of above-average temperatures for the Southwest through January 2005. Climate forecasts are predicting slightly increased probability of wetter-than-average conditions for the Southwest during the winter.
El Niño – Conditions in the Pacific Ocean hint at the onset of a weak El Niño during the next several months.
The Bottom Line – Hydrological drought is expected to persist in Arizona through late autumn, while parts of New Mexico may see limited improvement.