End InSight May 2003

Drought categories have increased across most of New Mexico (with the exception of the west-central mountains) and they have remained unchanged across Arizona. Of particular note are the following: an increase in the area of extreme drought across northern New Mexico and a return to moderate drought across eastern and southern New Mexico. As we continue through the dry pre-monsoon period in the Southwest, we can expect what little snow remains on the landscape to melt and evaporation to increase—the latter exacerbated by increase chances of above-average temperatures, especially across the western and southern parts of Arizona and New Mexico. Perhaps the most important drought concerns are related to long-term hydrological conditions (i.e., surface and groundwater supply) and medium-term agricultural conditions. Long-term soil moisture deficits from years of drought across our region and a lack of late spring precipitation have left dryland farming areas in New Mexico especially susceptible to wind damage and erosion. The most recent release of national range and pasture status from the USDA (May 11, 2003) indicates that New Mexico and Arizona have the poorest conditions in the United States.