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 SW Climate Outlook

Featured: On the CLIMAS Website

El Niño is here, what does that mean for Arizona and New Mexico?

Ben McMahan & Mike Crimmins, Originally published on the CLIMAS blog, Sept 24, 2015

“El Niño” has been all over the news lately, even garnering comparisons to a Godzilla.  This characterization is in response to the near-record strength of this El Niño event, which is exciting for climate enthusiasts but leaves most people wondering what a strong El Niño event actually means for Arizona and New Mexico. (read more)

Oct 2015 SW Climate Podcast - Monsoon Recap

In this episode of The Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins & Zack Guido recap the 2015 monsoon, (and revisit some of their predictions from earlier this summer). In part 1, they give a quick overview of the monsoon, before taking a closer look at the month by month progression, to track the overall season for what stood out (and what was underwhelming).  In part 2, they talk about nuances associated with the monsoon, including the impacts of El Niño, and eastern pacific tropical storm activity.  They conclude with a discussion of the variable nature of  the monsoon, and what makes this such an exciting place to live as we watch the season unfold - Listen

Sept 2015 SW Climate Podcast - El Niño Super-Podcast

In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins focus specifically on El Niño and what we can expect going into this fall and winter, given the “strong” status of this El Niño event. Part 1: A look at the El Niño signal, including a look back at what happened in 2014 (and why El Niño didn’t start when we thought it would), as well as a look forward for what El Niño might mean regionally and globally. Part 2: A close look at the 97-98 El Niño event, and what happened in the Southwest during the last “strong” El Niño event...Can we expect more of the same?  What might be different? Part 3: A look at the El Niño models going into Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 - How certain are we about increased precipitation this winter?  When might we see this increase?  Any chance for a “boringly average” year, despite the El Niño signal - Listen

Notes from an Applied Climatologist: Monsoon End Q&A

Mike Crimmins, Originally published on the CLIMAS blog, Sept 29, 2014

How Do We Know When the Monsoon is Over?  Across the southwest United States, the start of the summer monsoon season is pretty easy to recognize once you have experienced it firsthand a few times. Typically, one week it’s hot and dry, and the next week, it’s hot and sticky, but hopefully raining. This is a predictable part of the southwestern summer, and typically happens in late June or early July across Arizona and New Mexico (often first in New Mexico with Arizona trailing just behind). The start is relatively clear cut, but calling an end to the monsoon season is a bit trickier, because there isn’t a rapid and clean transition back to some other non-monsoon weather conditions in the fall, and the presence of monsoon breaks can complicate this transition. (read more)