Forecast - November | December | January
The one-month NOAA temperature outlook (November; Figure 4) favors chances for above-average temperatures for all of New Mexico and Texas through November. Chances for above-average temperatures increase into the winter, with increased chances for above-average temperatures for all of both states through January, according to the NOAA three-month temperature outlook (November–January; figure not shown).
Figure 4 (right): NOAA one-month temperature outlook (November). Forecast made on October 19, 2017 by CPC.
The forecast from CONAGUA´s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) for November predicts below-average minimum temperatures in southern Baja California and the southern border between Chihuahua and Coahuila, and above-average minimum temperatures in northern Baja California, Northeast Sonora and northern Chihuahua (Figure 5; left). For December, SMN predicts below-average minimum temperatures in southern Baja California, Southwest Chihuahua, Southeast Sonora and Durango, and above-average anomalies in northern Chihuahua, Northeast Coahuila, and Nuevo León (Figure 5; right).
Figure 5: Predicted minimum temperature anomalies for northern of Mexico in (°C), October (left) and November (right). Forecast made in October 1, 2017 by SMN.
For November, the NOAA precipitation outlook predicts chances for below-average precipitation for almost all of New Mexico and Texas (Figure 6). Chances for below-average precipitation increase slightly into the winter, with increased chances for below-average precipitation in all of Texas and most of New Mexico through January (figure not shown).
Figure 6 (right): NOAA one-month precipitation outlook (November). Forecast made on October 19, 2017 by CPC.
For November, the SMN precipitation outlook predicts below-average conditions for Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, northern Nuevo León y northeastern Tamaulipas, and above-average conditions for southeastern Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas (Figure 7; left). For December, SMN predicts below-average precipitation for Baja California, northeastern and southeastern Sonora, southern Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and northern Tamaulipas; the rest of the region is projected to experience normal precipitation (Figure 7; right).
Figure 7 (above): Predicted precipitation anomalies for northern of Mexico in (°C), November (left) and December (right). Forecast made on October 1, 2017 by SMN.
According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire risk is normal for New Mexico and Texas through November (Figure 8). However, expected La Niña conditions this fall are predicted to bring dry and warm conditions to the Southern Plains, including central Texas, by December, making grasses and brush more receptive to fire. In Mexico, the potential for forest fires will be within the normal range for the northern part of the country until December.
Figure 8 (above): Fire outlook for November (left) and December (right). Red shading indicates conditions that favor increased fire potential. Green shading indicates conditions that favor decreased fire potential. Forecast made on October 12, 2017 from NIFC and SMN.
El Niño Southern Oscillation
As of early-October, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state. However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central topical Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña and atmospheric conditions are suggestive of near La Niña patterns (IRI; NOAA). Thus, the official CPC/IRI outlook favors weak La Niña development (~55-65%) during the fall and winter of 2017-2018, and carries a La Niña watch (Figure 9). La Niña favors below average winter precipitation across the southern tier of the United States.
Figure 9 (above): ENSO probabilistic forecast from IRI.
For more ENSO information:
English: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/enso-essentials/ and http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/.
Spanish: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/es/climatologia/diagnostico-climatico/enos y http://www.smn.gov.ar/?mod=biblioteca&id=68