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Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - February 2019

Sunday, February 17, 2019

After months of El Niño on the horizon (but each month not appearing to get any closer), forecasters have identi ed the convergence of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that indicate the presence of a weak El Niño event. This is expected to last through spring, although there is not complete agreement across the international agencies. On Feb. 12, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintained their assertion of the presence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific and called for a 70-percent chance of these conditions lasting until summer 2019. (read more)

Southwest Climate Outlook February 2019 - Climate Summary

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

January Precipitation and Temperature: January was wetter-than-normal across much of northern Arizona and New Mexico, near-normal in southern Arizona, and below-normal across most of southern New Mexico (Fig. 1). January temperatures were normal to above-normal (Fig. 2). Winter storms brought wet and cool conditions to the region in February – including some heavy snow forecast later in the week of Feb 18. These storms feel like a departure, but may simply be closer to normal winter conditions in the Southwest, with expectations having shifted after persistent warm and dry winter conditions over the past few years or decades. (read more)

 

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