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June 2016 SW Climate Outlook - ENSO Tracker

Friday, June 17, 2016

El Niño conditions continued their active decline (Figs. 1-2), and consensus is that they have reached ENSO-neutral status at the time of this writing. Forecast discussions focused on the decline of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies that characterize an El Niño event—convective activity, equatorial sea surface temperatures, and trade winds—and forecasters saw consistent evidence of a return to ENSO-neutral status across these indicators. Seasonal ENSO outlooks coalesced around La Niña conditions emerging by summer or fall 2016, with relatively high certainty that La Niña conditions would be in place sometime by mid-to-late 2016. (read more)

El Niño Recap & La Niña Outlook - May 2016

Saturday, May 21, 2016

El Niño Recap & La Niña Outlook

This El Niño event was one of the strongest ever recorded (Fig. 5), and if past performance was any indication of what was expected for the Southwest, the region should have seen above-average precipitation over much of the cool season (winter and spring). The Southwest generally saw lower-than-expected precipitation totals that were much closer to average, or even below average in some cases.  There are several reasons why this event did not meet expectations. (read more)

Southwest Climate Outlook May 2016 - Climate Summary

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Originally published in the May 2016 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

Precipitation & Temperature: Across most of the Southwest, April 2016 precipitation totals were above average (Fig 1a) and temperatures were average to above average (Fig 1b). Over the past 30 days, the Southwest experienced a minor cooling trend, with much of the region recording below-average temperatures (Fig. 2a) and a mix of above- and below-average precipitation (Fig. 2b). Increased rainfall and below-average temperatures are a welcome, albeit temporary, break from the typical warming and drying trend observed in late spring and early summer.

El Niño Tracker - March 2016 - Time Winding Down for El Niño in the Southwest

Friday, March 18, 2016

Originally published in the Mar 2016 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

El Niño conditions continued for a 13th straight month, but the peak of this event has passed. Monitoring and forecast discussions emphasize strong positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs. 1–2) and enhanced convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific. These positive temperature anomalies are waning, and trade wind activity is increasing, indications that this El Niño event is on the decline. Most forecasts emphasize this event will continue through spring or early summer before returning to ENSO-neutral status. (read more)

Southwest Climate Outlook March 2016 - Last Gasp for El NIño?

Thursday, March 17, 2016

In the Mar 2016 issue of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook (SWCO)

Southwest Climate Summary & Recap (this post - read more)

  • Precipitation & Temperature
  • Drought, Snowpack & Water Supply
  • El Niño Tracker
  • Environmental Health and Safety (including wildfire)
  • Precipitation & Temperature Forecast Summaries

Also in this issue: 

Image Source - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Image Source - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

2015-2016 El Niño Tracker - Feb 2016

Monday, February 22, 2016

El Niño conditions continued for a 12th straight month, but we have passed the peak intensity of one of the strongest El Niño events on record. This does not mean that El Niño is over, though. Despite the recent warm and dry conditions in the Southwest, we are likely to see more weather events associated with El Niño conditions through spring 2016. (read more)


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