The University of Arizona

Monthly Archive | CLIMAS

Monthly Archive

Southwest Climate Outlook March 2019 - Climate Summary

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

February Precipitation and Temperature: February precipitation was above-average across most of Arizona and northwestern New Mexico (and much of the western United States), but quickly transitioned to below-average in southern and eastern New Mexico, a pattern that extended into western Texas (Fig. 1a). February temperatures were below-average in most of Arizona and northwestern New Mexico, and average to above-average in central and eastern New Mexico (Fig. 1b). (read more)

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - March 2019

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

El Niño Tracker: Seasonal outlooks have mostly converged on forecasts that emphasize atmospheric and oceanic conditions consistent with a weak El Niño event. This is expected to last through spring, with a chance for a longer event if these conditions persist through summer and into fall. On Mar. 11, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintained their assertion of the presence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific and called for a 70-percent chance of these conditions lasting until summer 2019. On Mar. 14, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) maintained their El Niño advisory, given the convergence of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, as well as warm subsurface waters on the way, and their outlook jumped to an 80-percent chance of an El Niño lasting through spring (and 60-percent through summer). On Mar. 19, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 1). (read more)