The University of Arizona

Forecast Evaluation Tool | CLIMAS

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Forecast Evaluation Tool

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) began forecasting successive three-month periods in 1994, with lead times spanning from two weeks to 13 months into the future. But the usefulness of these forecasts depends on their accuracy. If the forecasts have been historically worse than simply using a coin to predict the weather, then what value do they really have?

Based on stakeholder interest in the evaluation and verification of forecasts, CLIMAS and other partners have developed an online interactive Forecast Evaluation Tool (FET). The FET helps decision makers understand the accuracy and usefulness of CPC forecasts with several customizable analyses.