New Mexico Drought Status

Above-average monsoon precipitation was observed across many parts of western and northern New Mexico in the past 30 days, bringing some drought relief to these regions. However, exceptional drought conditions—defined as droughts that occur, on average, once in every 50 years—continue to cover large swaths of the state (Figure 5a). More than 70 percent of the state continues to experience extreme to exceptional drought conditions with little relief provided by a relatively poor monsoon to date (Figure 5b). Since the summer rainy season began, drought conditions have virtually remained the same.

La Niña has returned, which doesn’t bode well for improving drought conditions. Precipitation forecasts issued by NOAA-Climate Prediction Center indicate increased chances for below-average rain and snow across all of New Mexico through the winter. These forecasts are based in part on the historical precipitation patterns during La Niña events.