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Southwest Climate Outlook September 2011 | CLIMAS

 SW Climate Outlook

Southwest Climate Outlook September 2011

 

Summary

PUBLISHED:  
Wednesday, September 21, 2011

September 2011 Climate Summary

Drought– Monsoon precipitation during the past 30 days provided some drought relief to parts of New Mexico and Arizona, but overall moderate drought or a more severe category persists across most of the region and even expanded and intensified across parts of Arizona. 

Temperature–Record warmth, continues across the Southwest. Temperatures have been 2–4 degrees F above average throughout most of the region.

Precipitation– The monsoon ramped up in mid-September, delivering copious rain to many parts of the Southwest; the monsoon as a whole, however, has delivered below-average precipitation.

ENSO– La Niña is back and is expected to deliver below-average precipitation to much of Arizona and New Mexico through the upcoming fall and winter seasons.

Climate Forecasts–Seasonal climate outlooks call for above-average temperatures through the new year, while below-average rainfall is forecasted for this winter.

The Bottom Line–The monsoon is nearly over and extreme and exceptional drought conditions remain ensconced in the region, particularly in the southeastern corners of Arizona and New Mexico. Widespread and intense monsoon storms flared up for a week in mid-September, but the total amount of rainfall since June 15 has been slightly below average for most of the region. Scant rain in some parts of the Southwest in conjunction with region-wide, warmer-than-average temperatures caused drought to expand and intensify in Arizona. The Southwest likely will continue to experience drier-than-average conditions because a La Niña event officially has returned. There is uncertainty about how long and how strong this La Niña will be, but forecasts suggest at least a weak event will persist through the winter.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.