Home » October 2011 Southwest Climate Outlook
Published October 27, 2011
Photo of drought, monsoon and reservoirs in circles

Source: CLIMAS

The issue features the summaries of the 2011 water year, which began on October 1, 2010 and ended on September 30, 2011. It was marked by changes in reservoir storage, drought, and many other climate and weather conditions.

October Climate Summary

Drought- The drought situation has changed very little across the Southwest over the past 30 days, with all of Arizona and almost all of New Mexico still experiencing some level of drought. More than 40 percent of Arizona and 85 percent of New Mexico are experiencing severe or more intense drought.

Temperature- It has been a cooler-than-average start to the water year in northern Arizona and New Mexico. Southeastern New Mexico continues to be hot.

Precipitation- The past 30 days have been wetter than average in parts of the northern tier of Arizona and New Mexico, but dry conditions continue in the southern part of both states.
ENSO- Confidence has increased that the La Niña event will stick around this winter and likely deliver below-average precipitation to most of Arizona and New Mexico for the second consecutive year.

Climate Forecasts- Seasonal forecasts call for increased chances for above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation through the winter.

The Bottom Line- Drought conditions currently grip most of the Southwest and there is little indication this will change in the coming months. A pool of cold water beneath the sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean likely will maintain at least a weak La Niña event through the winter. Because La Niña conditions often cause winter storms to track north of the Southwest, precipitation forecasts call for below-average rain and snow and drought is expected to expand and intensify across the region. La Niña events often enable the jet stream to meander more in a north-south direction, which can cause Arctic air to flow into the Southwest. This occurred in February 2011 when record-cold weather froze plants and pipes throughout the region.

A Multi-Level Government Approach to Climate Change Benefits All

Climate change affects everyone on the globe, from people living in industrial nations to rural subsistence farmers in developing regions. Such a global issue might seem to require a global response. Indeed, nations that are party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are working to promote an international response to climate change and are developing national policies, although substantial progress remains slow, particularly in the U.S.

Does this mean that anything less than global- and national-level efforts isn’t worthwhile? Definitely not. Navigating Climate Change Policy: the Opportunities of Federalism, a new book published by the University of Arizona Press,  argues that our federal system of government, in which power is divided among a national government and state and regional governments, is actually well-suited to address the challenges of climate change because it allows for policy responses at multiple scales—from the national to the local. Navigating Climate Change Policy demonstrates that climate change policy need not be an either/or matter —either federal or state—and explores policy-making processes that draw upon the strength of multiple levels of government. While a coordinated effort sufficient to combat global warming has yet to materialize, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions—which play a dominant role in global warming—can indeed be made at local, state, and regional levels.

Read more about Navigating Climate Change Policy on the Southwest Climate Change Network Blog: http://www.southwestclimatechange.org/blog/12902