Temperature

Temperatures since the water year began on October 1 have averaged between 50 and 60 degrees Fahrenheit on the Colorado Plateau of Arizona and across many parts of New Mexico (Figure 1a). The lowest temperatures have been in the higher elevations of both states, while average temperatures in the deserts generally have been in the 70s. Temperatures across the region during October and early November were much warmer than average (Figure 1b). The average October temperature for Arizona ranked as the 21st warmest on record for that month, out of 118 years, while the average temperature in New Mexico was the 37th warmest. Because temperatures and precipitation are positively correlated, the lack of recent rain has contributed to the warmer-than-average conditions. Only one winter storm has passed through the Southwest since October 1, and it brought below-average temperatures for only a few days. Otherwise, high pressure has dominated the weather pattern of the Southwest.

During the past 30 days, most of Arizona was 1 to 3 degrees F warmer than average, while northwestern New Mexico experienced temperatures within 1 degree of average (Figures 1c–d). Many parts of eastern New Mexico were extremely warm, with temperatures greater than 3 degrees F above average for this time of year. The cold winter storm that moved through Southern California into Arizona in early November exited the state to the northeast, catching the northwest corner of New Mexico but not affecting much of eastern New Mexico.