Home » November 2010 Southwest Climate Outlook
Published November 23, 2010
November 2010 Southwest Climate Outlook

Source: Stacy Egan.

Photo Description: The combination of clouds from winter storms and soft evening light can create colorful sunsets in Arizona. The photo, taken in January 2008, overlooks the Santa Catalina Mountains near Tucson, Arizona.

November 2010 Climate Summary

Drought– Drought conditions decreased in Arizona and increased in New Mexico during the last 30 days. More than 50 percent of Arizona and 69 percent of New Mexico remain drought free. The Four Corners region has been the hardest hit area.

Temperature– The water year continues to be warmer than average, in spite of a few cold snaps brought on by passing storms. Average temperatures in the last month also have been generally above average.

Precipitation– Storms that have passed through the Southwest since the water year began have wafted northeast, clipping only northwest Arizona. Most of Arizona and New Mexico have been drier than average in the last month and since the water year began.

ENSO– The La Niña event remained at moderate to strong strength during October. Cool water beneath the sea surface and enhanced trade winds from the east likely will help sustain the strength of the event through the end of the year. There is more than a 92 percent chance that La Niña will persist through the January–March period.

Climate Forecasts– Probabilities for warm and dry conditions in many parts of the Southwest are greater than 50 percent through the winter and early spring.

The Bottom Line– Warm and dry conditions prevailed during the last month and could be a harbinger for future months. Althought these conditions helped expand drought in New Mexico, most of the Southwest is drought free. The moderate to strong La Niña event likely will grab future headlines, as it is projected to continue into the spring and these events often direct storms north of the Southwest, leaving the region dry. Many forecasts call for expanding drought conditions and below-average rain and snow. There is some indication that the La Niña event is nearing its peak strength, but it’s also possible that it will intensify. A dry winter could cause Lake Mead to drop below a critical water elevation and trigger additional releases from Lake Powell to temporarily stave water rationing in the Lower Colorado River Basin.

Cap and Trade on GHGs in New Mexico

The New Mexico Environment Improvement Board recently adopted a cap on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The measure, which passed narrowly by a four to three vote, is the most comprehensive regulation in the nation, according to the New Mexico Environment Department. It will allow New Mexico to participate in the regional Western Climate Initiative’s greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program if and when other states or Canadian provinces in the program move forward with similar programs (Bloomberg, November 3).

The new regulations will allow trade credits to be generated for participation in the regional cap-and-trade program. The regulations will apply to sources that emit 25,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide or more per year and that consist of about 63 large industrial sources—primarily electricity generators, oil and gas developers, and large businesses. The state will reduce by 2 percent each year the number of GHG emission allowances that are allocated to each facility. The New Mexico program is scheduled to start in 2012 if the market size is sufficient to be efficient and cost-effective. The regulation will expire if an equally effective federal cap-and-trade program is implemented.

Read more about the cap-and-trade program in New Mexico at http://www.nmenv.state.nm.us/OOTS/press_releases.html