Arizona Drought Status

Abnormally dry conditions remain across western and northern Arizona but drought conditions declined from one month ago (Figure 4a). Currently, drought conditions are absent from 51.2 percent of the state, up from about 40 percent as reported in the October 19 issue of the U.S. Drought Monitor (Figure 4b). Also, a small area in northern Arizona that was classified as experiencing severe drought last month has been downgraded to moderate drought this month. The precipitation forecast issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for increased chances of dry conditions in Arizona throughout the winter and early spring. The CPC drought forecast, which is in part based on the precipitation forecasts, suggests drought conditions will expand in the coming months. Both of these forecasts are influenced by the current moderate to strong La Niña event. These events often bring drier-than-average winters to the region.

Drought impacts reported by Arizona DroughtWatch indicate that rangelands are still in poor shape across northwestern Arizona from a lack of summer rainfall. This also suggests that the recent rains may have limited benefit in improving range conditions because of the late timing. Reports in northwestern Arizona also indicate surface water storage in reservoirs is unusually low and many smaller stocks are dry. More drought impact reports can be viewed on Arizona DroughtWatch’s webpage at http://azdroughtwatch.org/.