Home » March 2012 Southwest Climate Outlook » Temperature Outlook
Forecasts
Published March 21, 2012

Temperature Outlook

 (April-September 2012)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in March call for increased odds that temperatures for the three-month seasons spanning April to September will be similar to the warmest 10 years in the 1981–2010 period (Figures 9a–d). The above-average temperatures for the April–June period reflect recent warming trends that override cooler temperatures often brought on by La Niña events—La Niña is currently weak. For this period, there is a 50–60 percent chance that temperatures will be 1.0–1.5 degrees F above average in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. The outlooks also forecast more than a 50 percent chance of above-average temperatures in the summer months, also reflecting recent warming trends for the monsoon season.

Seasonal Temperature Forcasts for the U.S.
Notes:

These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1981–2010 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

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