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Forecasts
Published March 24, 2011

Temperature Outlook

 (April 2011–September 2011)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in March call for increased chances for temperatures to be similar to the warmest 10 years of the 1971–2000 period through the spring and summer. For the April–June period, CPC outlooks call for greater than a 40 percent chance that temperatures will resemble the warmest years in the climatological record in most of Arizona and New Mexico, and greater than a 50 percent chance in southern portions of the two states (Figure 9a). As we move into summer, temperatures in nearly all of Arizona and the western and southern portions of New Mexico have greater than a 50 percent probability of being similar to the warmest 10 years in the climatological record (Figures 9b–d). The temperature outlooks for May through August (Figures 9b-c) reflect some lingering La Niña impacts mostly resulting from very low soil moisture throughout much of the southern U.S.

Temperature Outlook
Notes:

These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1971–2000 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

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