Home » June 2012 Southwest Climate Outlook » Temperature Outlook
Forecasts
Published June 27, 2012

Temperature Outlook

 (July–December 2012)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in June call for increased odds that temperatures for the three-month seasons through December will be similar to the warmest 10 years in the 1981–2010 period (Figures 10a–d). Recent warming trends are principally influencing this forecast. The possibility that El Niño will develop later in the summer is not a driving influence, but may become more important during the winter; El Niño events tend to bring cooler-than-average conditions to the Southwest.

For the July–September period corresponding to the monsoon, there is a 40–50 percent chance that temperatures will be similar to the warmest 10 years in the 1981-2000 record, and a 60–70 percent chance that they will above average (not shown). The highest probabilities are in northwest Arizona. The monsoon has a notable influence on temperatures because vigorous and continuous rain cools the atmosphere. While it is expected that the monsoon will be early and deliver above-above average rain in July, August and September remain a black box.
 

Seasonal Temperature Forcasts for the U.S.
Notes:

These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1981–2010 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

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