Wildland Fire Outlook

 (July-September 2011)
Data Source(s): National Interagency Coordination Center, Southwest Coordination Center

Predictive Services at the Southwest Coordination Center expect above-normal significant fire potential to continue across most of the Southwest in July (Figure 12). Significant fire potential is the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require additional fire management resources from outside the region where the fire originated. Dry vegetation, low levels of relative humidity, above-average temperature forecasts, and intermittent periods of hot and dry winds are factors contributing to the above-normal outlook for the region. Significant fire potential in the eastern third of New Mexico should decrease to normal in July, while above-normal levels will expand to central and northern portions of Arizona and the northwest corner of New Mexico. By September, significant fire potential is expected to decrease from above normal to normal for most of the region.

Temperature forecasts issued by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show increased chances for above-average temperatures in the Southwest for July-September, which can help prime the landscape for fires until the monsoon season begins in earnest. The start date for the monsoon is currently unclear, as is the strength of the monsoon once it begins. As a result, CPC precipitation forecasts for July-September show equal chances for above-, below-, or near-average precipitation. Dry lightning strikes will likely increase during the next few weeks leading up to the start of the monsoon, especially across New Mexico.

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