Precipitation

Since the water year began on October 1, precipitation has ranged from 200 percent of average in the northwest corner of Arizona to less than 5 percent of average in parts of southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico  (Figures 2a–b). Only the northwest quarter of Arizona has received near-average precipitation so far during the 2011 water year. Central Arizona and northwestern New Mexico have received 50–90 percent of average, the southern counties of Arizona had less than 50 percent of average, and the southern counties of New Mexico, along with Cochise and southern Graham and Greenlee counties in Arizona, have seen less than 25 percent of average precipitation. The dry conditions have followed the typical impacts of a La Niña event, with the heavy precipitation falling north and west of Arizona and New Mexico.  

The last 30 days have brought no moisture to the southern counties of Arizona and most of the counties in New Mexico. Two storms in May brought some relief to northern Arizona across Coconino, southern Mohave, northern Navajo, and Apache counties, and San Juan County in northwest New Mexico (Figures 2c–d). Some precipitation also fell in southern Navajo County, but it was insufficient to reduce the fire potential or improve the soil moisture. The dry conditions have worsened the drought and wildfire situation in Arizona and New Mexico. The dryness extends south into Mexico, where signs of the monsoon are virtually non-existent at this time.