Home » June 2011 Southwest Climate Outlook
Published June 20, 2011
Photo of the Wallow Fire near Springerville, Arizona in the white Mountains

The Wallow Fire, located near Springerville, Arizona, in the White Mountains, has become the largest fire in Arizona history. It had burned more than  520,000 acres as of June 20. Other fires also are raging in the Southwest, including the Horseshoe Two, which is charring the parched landscape in the Chiricahua National Monument (visible at the bottom of the image).  Image taken on June 8 and courtesy of NASA.

June Climate Summary

Drought– Drought conditions intensified across southeast Arizona and much of New Mexico over the past 30 days, with extreme and exceptional drought now covering much of these areas.

Temperature– In the last month temperatures in Arizona mostly have been between 2 and 6 degrees F cooler than average, while the eastern half of New Mexico has been 2 to 6 degrees F warmer than average.

Precipitation– Scant rainfall during May meant no reprieve from dry conditions in New Mexico and southern Arizona, where southwestern drought conditions are most severe.

ENSO– Near-average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean were present again this month, providing further evidence that ENSO-neutral conditions have returned. Forecasts indicate a high probability that neutral conditions will persist through the end of 2011.  .

Climate Forecasts– The July–September monsoon precipitation forecast is equal chances for above-, below-, and near-average rainfall, while forecasts call for increased chances for above-average temperatures during this period.

The Bottom Line– Impacts from a dry winter are often not felt until spring. This year the point has been hammered home, as widespread and exceptional drought conditions have combined with strong winds to fan fires across the region. Both Arizona and New Mexico have set records for the most acres burned in those states, with more than 750,000 acres charred in Arizona and another 630,000 in New Mexico as of June 17. Above-normal significant fire potential is forecasted to continue across most of the Southwest through July. Monsoon storms likely will quell fire risk and improve drought conditions, but some indicators hint at a late arrival—the monsoon typically arrives in the first week of July for southern Arizona and New Mexico. Seasonal forecasts for the entire monsoon period, however, do not indicate if total rainfall will be above, below, or near average.

News Flash: Comparing Arizona's Largest Fires

Arizona’s largest fire is no longer the Rodeo-Chediski, which consumed about 468,000 acres in 2002. The Wallow Fire, which began May 29, has charred more than 495,000 acres as of June 17. How have these two fires compared?

When the Rodeo-Chediski flames first erupted in east-central Arizona, an extreme drought gripped the landscape and was downgraded to an exceptional drought during the fire, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. On the eve of the Wallow Fire, drought conditions were severe to extreme, and the magnitude and duration of dry conditions were less severe than they were on the eve of the 2002 blaze. Windy conditions have played a large role in advancing the Wallow Fire, while Rodeo-Chediski spread during periods of low wind; the latter spread vigorously in large part because of very dry fuels. The Rodeo-Chediski Fire was also considerably more destructive to property, consuming about 400 homes in Pinedale and other small communities. By June 17, the Wallow Fire has destroyed 32 homes, four commercial buildings, and 34 other structures.

This year will go down in the record books as the most severe fire season for both Arizona and New Mexico since 1990, when fire record-keeping began. As of June 14, 757,076 acres had burned in Arizona, while 631,272 acres had been blackened in New Mexico.