Wildland Fire Outlook

 

Moisture from the monsoon has helped reduce the number and size of wildfires in Arizona and New Mexico, particularly in southern areas. While some parts of the region remain in severe drought, soil and fuel moisture levels have generally increased over the last month, and these trends are expected to continue. Forecasts from the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show increased chances for above-average precipitation, especially across Arizona and western New Mexico. This means that the drought and related impacts are likely to improve through October. Wildfire risk and activity should therefore continue to decrease across parts of the Southwest. However, there is uncertainty in the precipitation forecast because the monsoon is always variable. Although it is off to an early and vigorous start, it is common to have protracted breaks in monsoon rainfall, which would increase risks of fire, especially in places that have received fewer summer storms. So far, the state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may also influence precipitation in coming months. The expectation is that sea surface temperatures will continue to warm, causing an El Niño event in coming months. In the past, El Niño events have caused a slight decrease in precipitation in parts of southern, central, and northwestern Arizona during the July–September period. El Niño events, however, increase chances for above-average precipitation in many parts of Arizona and New Mexico during the winter.