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Forecasts
Published July 25, 2012

Seasonal Drought Outlook

 (through October)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

This summary is partially excerpted and edited from the July 19 Seasonal Drought Outlook technical discussion produced by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and written by forecaster D. Miskus.

The monsoon brings a large portion of the annual precipitation in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, western Texas, and eastern Colorado during the June–September period. Since July 1, the monsoon has produced substantial rain across much of the Southwest. Many areas also have reported above-average rainfall since June 19, and most of Arizona and southeast California also have received above-average rainfall in the last 60 and 90 days, respectively. 
 
The monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks issued by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) all favor near- to above-median rainfall across this region. With these and other forecast tools in agreement, drought improvement is forecast for nearly all of Arizona and western New Mexico, with some improvement for the remainder of the Southwest (Figure 12). The CPC assigns a moderate to high confidence in this forecast. 
 
In other parts of the West, widespread moderate and severe drought covers many regions and there is little chance for improvement because the summer is historically dry. The CPC precipitation forecasts also favor slightly enhanced chances for below-median precipitation over the Northwest and equal chances that precipitation will be above, below, or near average in the Great Basin and northern Rockies. As a result, the seasonal drought forecast calls for the existing drought to continue without any areas of improvement or new development. The CPC assigns a high confidence in this forecast. 
 
 
       
 
 
 
Map of United states Seasonal Drought Outlook
Notes:

The delineated areas in the Seasonal Drought Outlook are defined subjectively and are based on expert assessment of numerous indicators, including the official precipitation outlooks, various medium- and short-range forecasts , models such as the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts,  soil moisture tools, and climatology.

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