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Published July 25, 2011
Wildland Fire Outlook(August-October 2011)
Data Source(s): Sources: National Interagency Coordination Center, Southwest Coordination Center
Significant fire potential across the Southwest decreased from above normal to normal in July, according to the Predictive Services at the Southwest Coordination Center. The expectation is that significant fire potential will stay at normal levels for the August–October period (Figure 13). Significant fire potential is the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require additional fire management resources from outside the region where the fire originated.
Temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show an increased likelihood for above-average temperatures for August–October. CPC forecast models for precipitation across the Southwest, however, show both above-average and below-average rains. As a result, the forecast is for equal chances for above-, below-average, or near-average levels. Wildfire activity typically peaks in June before the onset of the monsoon. However, if dry conditions persist in New Mexico, widespread fire activity likely will continue.
The National Interagency Coordination Center at the National Inter-agency Fire Center produces seasonal wildland fire outlooks each month. The forecasts (Figure 12) consider observed climate conditions, climate and weather forecasts, vegetation health, and surface-fuels conditions in order to assess fire potential for fires greater than 100 acres. They are subjective assessments, that synthesize information provided by fire and climate experts throughout the United States.
National Wildland Fire Outlook web page :
Southwest Coordination Center web page :
Southwest Climate Outlook Staff
- Michael Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
- Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Editor
- Gregg Garfin, Founding Editor, Institute of the Environment
- Zack Guido, Managing Editor, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
- Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
- Jessica Dollin, CLIMAS Publications Assistant
- Dave Dubious, New Mexico State Climatologist
Please direct your Southwest Climate Outlook comments and suggestions to Zack Guido.
The CLIMAS Web site contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials.... Read full disclaimer