Home » July 2011 Southwest Climate Outlook » Temperature Outlook
Forecasts
Published July 25, 2011

Temperature Outlook

 (August 2011-January 2012)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in July call for increased chances for temperatures to be similar to those of the warmest 10 years of the 1981–2010 period through the spring and summer. For the August–October and September–November periods, CPC outlooks call for greater than a 50 percent chance that temperatures will resemble the warmest years in the climatological record in most of Arizona and parts of New Mexico (Figures 10a–b). These forecasts are based in part on decadal trends and low soil moisture present in June as a result of the dry winter and spring. The forecast issued for October–December calls for temperatures in most of Arizona and southwestern New Mexico to have a greater than a 40 percent probability of being similar to those of the warmest 10 years in the climatological record (Figure 10c). For November–January, temperatures have an equal chance of being above-, below-, or near-average (Figure 10d). This equal chance forecast is influenced by the uncertainty of a returning La Niña event or the development of an El Niño event.

Photo of National Temperature Forcast
Notes:

These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1981–2010 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

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