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Published July 25, 2011
Seasonal Drought Outlook(through October)
Data Source(s): NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
This summary is partially excerpted and edited from the July 19 Seasonal Drought Outlook technical discussion produced by the NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and written by forecaster A. Allgood.
Monsoon rainfall began around the July 4 weekend primarily in Arizona, Utah, and Colorado when a surge of moist air driven into the region from the outflow of Tropical Storm Arlene doused many areas. In New Mexico, however, where drought conditions are present across nearly the entire state, thunderstorm activity has been sparse. For the next 8-14 days, the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates a greater chance for increased monsoon rainfall across the New Mexico and Arizona border, but suppressed thunderstorm activity is more likely to continue across eastern New Mexico. For the three-month, August–October season precipitation outlook, the CPC calls for equal chances of above-, below-, and near-average rainfall. Based on these forecasts, drought improvement is forecast for Arizona, western New Mexico, and southern Colorado (Figure 12). However, due to the late start to the monsoon in western New Mexico and suppressed monsoon activity between July 21 and August 4, drought forecasts are less certain in this region. The confidence for this forecast is moderate.
The delineated areas in the Seasonal Drought Outlook are defined subjectively and are based on expert assessment of numerous indicators, including the official precipitation outlooks, various medium- and short-range forecasts , models such as the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts, soil moisture tools, and climatology.
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For medium- and short-range forecasts, visit:
For soil moisture tools, visit:
Southwest Climate Outlook Staff
- Michael Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
- Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Editor
- Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Director
- Gregg Garfin, Founding Editor, Institute of the Environment
- Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
- Gigi Owen, CLIMAS Assistant Staff Scientist
- Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
- Jessica Swetish, CLIMAS Publications Assistant
Please direct your Southwest Climate Outlook comments and suggestions to Zack Guido.
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