Home » January 2012 Southwest Climate Outlook » Temperature Outlook
Forecasts
Published January 24, 2012

Temperature Outlook

 (February–July 2012)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in January call for increased odds that temperatures for the three-month seasons spanning February to July will be similar to the warmest 10 years in the 1981–2010 period (Figures 9a–d). The seasonal temperature outlooks for the February–April period reflect typical late winter La Niña conditions, which favor above-average temperatures across the southern continental U.S., according to the CPC. For this period, there is a 50 percent chance that temperatures will be 0.2–0.4 degrees F above average in the western half of Arizona and between 0.4 and 1.0 degree F above average in New Mexico.

Seasonal Temperature Forcasts for the U.S.
Notes:

These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1981–2010 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

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