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Published January 24, 2012
Streamflow Forecast(for spring and summer)
Data Source(s): National Water and Climate Center
The first spring–summer streamflow forecast for the Southwest, issued on January 1, shows a 50 percent chance that flows in most basins in Arizona and New Mexico will be below average (Figure 12). There is a 50 percent chance that the Salt, Verde, and Gila rivers in Arizona will experience streamflows amounting to 65, 64, and 83 percent of the January–May average, respectively. Although widespread and copious rain and snow soaked many mountain regions during November and December, dry conditions have largely prevailed in the last month. These conditions are expected to continue for the most part because the La Niña event is forecast to persist into spring. The La Niña also is influencing forecasts in New Mexico. There is a 50 percent chance that the March–July flow in the Rio Grande, measured at Otowi Bridge, and the Gila River, measured near Virden, will be 88 and 78 percent of average, respectively. On the other hand, above-average flows are expected in the Mimbres and Pecos rivers. Streamflow forecasts are issued every month for New Mexico and every two weeks for Arizona and become progressively more accurate as the winter progresses.
Spring inflow to Lake Powell is forecast to be about 64 percent of the 1971–2000 average for April–July, or about 3.2 million acre-feet. The forecast also indicates a 30 and 10 percent chance that Lake Powell inflow will be 81 and 109 percent of average, providing an indicator that above-average flows are unlikely. Last winter’s exceptionally high streamflows, which increased combined storage in Lakes Mead and Powell by about 7 million acre-feet between April and July—or about 2 million more than average—will buffer below-average flows in the Colorado River this year.Notes:
Water supply forecasts for the Southwest are coordinated between the National Water and Climate Center, part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC), part of NOAA. The forecast information provided in Figure 12 is updated monthly by the NWCC. Unless otherwise specified, all streamflow forecasts are for streamflow volumes that would occur naturally without any upstream influences, such as reservoirs and diversions. The coordinated forecasts by NRCS and NOAA are only produces for Arizona between January and May, and for New Mexico between January and May.
The NRCS provides a range of forecasts expressed in terms of percent of average streamflow for various exceedance levels. The forecast presented here is for the 50 percent exceedance level, and is referred to as the most probable streamflow. This means there is at least a 50 percent chance that streamflow will occur at the percent of average shown in Figure 12. The CBRFC provides a range of streamflow forecasts in the Colorado Basin ranging from short fused flood forecasts to longer range water supply forecasts. The water supply forecasts are coordinated monthly with NWCC.
For state river basin streamflow probability charts, visit: :
For information on interpreting streamflow forecasts, visit: :
For western U.S. water supply outlooks, visit: :
Southwest Climate Outlook Staff
- Michael Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
- Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Editor
- Gregg Garfin, Founding Editor, Institute of the Environment
- Zack Guido, Managing Editor, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
- Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
- Jessica Dollin, CLIMAS Publications Assistant
- Dave Dubious, New Mexico State Climatologist
Please direct your Southwest Climate Outlook comments and suggestions to Zack Guido.
The CLIMAS Web site contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials.... Read full disclaimer