Home » January 2011 Southwest Climate Outlook » Temperature Outlook
Forecasts
Published January 25, 2011

Temperature Outlook

 (February–July 2011)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in January call for increased chances for temperatures to be similar to the warmest 10 years during the 1971–2000 period through the winter and early summer. For the February–April period, CPC outlooks call for greater than a 50 percent chance that temperatures will resemble the warmest years in the climatological record in most of New Mexico, and greater than a 40 percent chance in most of Arizona (Figure 9a). For the March–May outlook, temperatures in nearly all of New Mexico and eastern Arizona also have greater than a 50 percent probability of being similar to the warmest 10 years in the climatological record (Figure 9b). For the April–June and May–July periods, probabilities for elevated temperatures are greater than 50 percent in nearly all of both states (Figures 9c–d). Recent decadal warming trends contribute to the enhanced probability of above-average temperatures in the West.

Temperature Outlook
Notes:

These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1971–2000 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

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