Southwest Snowpack

The water contained in snowpack has been variable across Arizona and New Mexico (Figure 8). As of January 20, snow water equivalent (SWE) measured by snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations ranged from 41 percent in the Gila River Basin to as much as 124 percent in the headwaters of the San Juan River. In Arizona, SWE ranged from 118 percent in the Verde River Basin to 74 percent in the Salt River Basin. Statewide, average snow levels were slightly above average. New Mexico, on the other hand, is experiencing a drier-than-average season so far, with scant precipitation falling across the state between October and December. Most basins recorded snowpack levels of less than 65 percent of average, except for the high elevation areas that include the Animas and San Juan river basins in southern Colorado and the Upper Rio Grande Basin in northern New Mexico.

The current moderate to strong La Niña event has played a large role in the dry winter in the Southwest. La Niña events typically steer storms north of the region and deliver warmer temperatures and less precipitation to the Southwest, especially in the southern areas. Current forecasts issued by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center indicate a high chance that La Niña conditions will persist throughout the spring, likely delivering below-average rain and snow totals to the region.

States to the north of Arizona and New Mexico, which supply most of the water to the Colorado River and Rio Grande, are experiencing a wet winter. Currently the majority of snow monitoring stations in Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah measure more than 125 percent of average SWE.