Home » February 2011 Southwest Climate Outlook » Temperature Outlook
Forecasts
Published February 23, 2011

Temperature Outlook

 (March 2011–August 2011)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in February call for increased chances for temperatures to be similar to the warmest 10 years of the 1971–2000 period through the winter and summer. For the March–May period, CPC outlooks call for greater than a 50 percent chance that temperatures will resemble the warmest 10 years in the climatological record in most of New Mexico and eastern Arizona (Figure 9a). Temperatures in nearly all of Arizona and the southern half of New Mexico have greater than a 50 percent probability of being similar to the warmest 10 years in the climatological record for April–June, May–July, and June–August (Figures 9b–d). Recent decadal warming trends and the expectation that the La Niña event will persist during most of these periods contribute to the enhanced probability of above-average temperatures in the Southwest.

Temperature Outlook
Notes:

These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1971–2000 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

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