Southwest Snowpack

The current La Niña event has continued to push winter storms to the north of the Southwest, leaving Arizona and New Mexico relatively dry. January was the driest January on record in New Mexico, and most areas in Arizona also experienced no rain or snow. Snowpack levels have significantly declined since last month, and most Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations measure below-average snow water equivalent (SWE) in Arizona and New Mexico (Figure 8). As of February 17, SWE in the Upper Gila River Basin in Arizona was the lowest in the state, measuring only 26 percent of average. SWE in the central Mogollon Rim area and the Verde River Basin were only slightly better, tallying 40 and 61 percent of average, respectively. SWE was more variable in New Mexico. River basins in the northern part of the state had near-average levels, including the Zuni/Bluewater River Basin, where SWE is about 98 percent of average. On the other hand, river basins in southern regions have extremely low SWE, including the Mimbres, where SWE stood at 19 percent of average on February 17.

Forecasts call for the continued presence of the La Niña pattern and elevated chances for below-average precipitation for the next several months. As a result, streamflow forecasts anticipate below-average runoff from most basins in the Southwest, except those with headwaters in the Rocky Mountains to the north of Arizona and New Mexico where precipitation has been higher this winter.