Home » December 2011 Southwest Climate Outlook » Temperature Outlook
Forecasts
Published December 19, 2011

Temperature Outlook

 (January–June 2012)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in December call for equal chances for above-, below-, or near-average conditions in Arizona and increased chances for above-average temperatures in New Mexico for the January–March period (Figure 9a). During the February–April and March–May periods, eastern Arizona and all of New Mexico have increased odds for above-average temperatures (Figures 9b–c). The highest chances are in southern New Mexico, with odds as much as 50-60 percent. For the April–June period, all of Arizona and New Mexico have elevated chances for above-average temperatures (Figure 9d). La Niña conditions, which are expected to persist through early spring, and recent warming trends influence these forecasts.

Seasonal Temperature Forcasts for the U.S.
Notes:

These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1981–2010 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

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