Wildland Fire Outlook

 (September–November 2012)
Data Source(s): National Interagency Coordination Center, Southwest Coordination Center

Normal significant fire potential is expected for all of Arizona and New Mexico for September through November, according to the National Interagency Fire Center (Figure 13). While fires are expected to occur due to dry periods, above-average temperatures, and lightning strikes, the probability for large, persistent fires is low because of monsoon moisture. Summer precipitation, which has been above average in parts of the Southwest, particularly the Mogollon Rim area, has helped improve fuel and soil moisture. In addition, forecasts from the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for September through November show increased chances for above-average precipitation in the central and southern portions of Arizona and the southwestern tip of New Mexico. The status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also will likely influence moisture levels in the Southwest. If sea surface temperatures continue to warm as expected, causing an El Niño event to develop in coming months, the region will likely experience above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures in the fall and winter. Copious winter rains could help reduce fire risk this year and next.

 

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