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Published August 22, 2012
Wildland Fire Outlook(September–November 2012)
Data Source(s): National Interagency Coordination Center, Southwest Coordination Center
Normal significant fire potential is expected for all of Arizona and New Mexico for September through November, according to the National Interagency Fire Center (Figure 13). While fires are expected to occur due to dry periods, above-average temperatures, and lightning strikes, the probability for large, persistent fires is low because of monsoon moisture. Summer precipitation, which has been above average in parts of the Southwest, particularly the Mogollon Rim area, has helped improve fuel and soil moisture. In addition, forecasts from the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for September through November show increased chances for above-average precipitation in the central and southern portions of Arizona and the southwestern tip of New Mexico. The status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also will likely influence moisture levels in the Southwest. If sea surface temperatures continue to warm as expected, causing an El Niño event to develop in coming months, the region will likely experience above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures in the fall and winter. Copious winter rains could help reduce fire risk this year and next.
The National Interagency Coordination Center at the National Interagency Fire Center produces seasonal wildland fire outlooks each month. The forecasts (Figure 13) consider observed climate conditions, climate and weather forecasts, vegetation health, and surface-fuels conditions in order to assess fire potential for fires greater than 100 acres. They are subjective assessments, that synthesize information provided by fire and climate experts throughout the United States.
National Wildland Fire Outlook web page :
Southwest Coordination Center web page :
Southwest Climate Outlook Staff
- Michael Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
- Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Editor
- Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Director
- Gregg Garfin, Founding Editor, Institute of the Environment
- Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
- Gigi Owen, CLIMAS Assistant Staff Scientist
- Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
- Jessica Swetish, CLIMAS Publications Assistant
Please direct your Southwest Climate Outlook comments and suggestions to Zack Guido.
The CLIMAS Web site contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials.... Read full disclaimer