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Published August 23, 2011
Wildland Fire Outlook(September-November 2011)
Data Source(s): Sources: National Interagency Coordination Center, Southwest Coordination Center
Significant fire potential is expected to remain normal across most of Arizona and New Mexico for the September–November period, according to the Predictive Services at the Southwest Coordination Center (Figure 13). Only the far eastern edge of New Mexico, where conditions have been hotter and drier than average, shows signs of above-normal significant fire potential. Significant fire potential is the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require additional fire management resources from outside the region where the fire originated. Temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show an increased likelihood for aboveaverage temperatures for the September–November period.
CPC precipitation forecasts for the same time period show slightly increased chances for below-average rainfall across most of the Southwest (see Figures 10a and 11a). However, significant fire potential remains normal due to monsoon-related moisture. Although actual rainfall has been variable across the region, high day and night humidity levels accompanying the monsoon have helped and will continue to help mitigate fire potential through September. High nighttime humidity is particularly important because it allows vegetation to regain moisture, making these potential fuels less likely to burn. Additionally, the recent lack of windy conditions has diminished the occurrence of large wildfires. If the number of wind events remains low, wildfires will have less potential to grow into significant events in the coming months.
The National Interagency Coordination Center at the National Inter-agency Fire Center produces seasonal wildland fire outlooks each month. The forecasts (Figure 13) consider observed climate conditions, climate and weather forecasts, vegetation health, and surface-fuels conditions in order to assess fire potential for fires greater than 100 acres. They are subjective assessments, that synthesize information provided by fire and climate experts throughout the United States.
National Wildland Fire Outlook web page :
Southwest Coordination Center web page :
Southwest Climate Outlook Staff
- Michael Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
- Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Editor
- Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Director
- Gregg Garfin, Founding Editor, Institute of the Environment
- Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
- Gigi Owen, CLIMAS Assistant Staff Scientist
- Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
- Jessica Swetish, CLIMAS Publications Assistant
Please direct your Southwest Climate Outlook comments and suggestions to Zack Guido.
The CLIMAS Web site contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials.... Read full disclaimer