Wildland Fire Outlook

 (September-November 2011)
Data Source(s): Sources: National Interagency Coordination Center, Southwest Coordination Center

Significant fire potential is expected to remain normal across most of Arizona and New Mexico for the September–November period, according to the Predictive Services at the Southwest Coordination Center (Figure 13). Only the far eastern edge of New Mexico, where conditions have been hotter and drier than average, shows signs of above-normal significant fire potential. Significant fire potential is the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require additional fire management resources from outside the region where the fire originated. Temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show an increased likelihood for aboveaverage temperatures for the September–November period.

CPC precipitation forecasts for the same time period show slightly increased chances for below-average rainfall across most of the Southwest (see Figures 10a and 11a). However, significant fire potential remains normal due to monsoon-related moisture. Although actual rainfall has been variable across the region, high day and night humidity levels accompanying the monsoon have helped and will continue to help mitigate fire potential through September. High nighttime humidity is particularly important because it allows vegetation to regain moisture, making these potential fuels less likely to burn. Additionally, the recent lack of windy conditions has diminished the occurrence of large wildfires. If the number of wind events remains low, wildfires will have less potential to grow into significant events in the coming months.

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