Temperature Outlook
(September 2011-February 2012)Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in August call for increased chances for temperatures to be similar to those of the warmest 10 years of the 1981–2010 period through the spring. For the September–November period CPC outlooks call for greater than a 50 percent chance that temperatures will resemble the warmest years in the climatological record in most of Arizona and southern New Mexico (Figure 10a). These forecasts are based in part on decadal trends and statistical and dynamical forecasts. The forecast issued for the October–December and November–January periods calls for temperatures in most of Arizona and in New Mexico to have greater than a 40 percent probability of being similar to those of the warmest 10 years in the climatological record, with slightly higher probabilities in southern parts of both states (Figures 10b–c). For the December–February period, temperatures have an equal chance of being above-, below-, or near-average in Arizona and slightly enhanced odds for warmer-than-average temperatures in New Mexico (Figure 10d).
Notes:
These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.
The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1981–2010 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.
Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.
Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.
Related Links:
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For more information on CPC forecasts, visit:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php -
For seasonal temperature forecast downscaled to the local scale, visit :
http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php -
For IRI forecasts, visit :
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/
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- Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Editor
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- Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
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