New Mexico Drought Status

New Mexico generally has received less than 70 percent of average rainfall in the past month. The exception has been in the southwest corner of the state, where  storms have delivered more than 130 percent of average. As a result, the entire state is still classified with some drought category (Figures 5a-b). About 42 percent of the state is pegged with exceptional drought, which is defined as a drought that occurs, on average, once in every 50 years. Another 35 and 16 percent of the state is experiencing extreme and moderate drought, respectively. Compared to one month ago, exceptional drought declined by about 6 percent, extreme drought increased by about 4 percent, and moderate drought increased by about 2 percent. The NOAA-Climate Prediction Center September forecast calls for slightly increased chances for below-average rainfall. In addition, the probability for a return of La Niña this winter is increasing. Both these forecasts suggest that drought conditions will not improve and may actually intensify and spread.