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Forecasts
Published August 25, 2010

Temperature Outlook

 (September 2010–February 2011)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in August are nearly identical to those issued last month. CPC outlooks show greater than a 50 percent probability that temperatures will be above average in all of Arizona and western New Mexico for the remainder of the monsoon season and into early fall (Figure 10a). The CPC also indicates that temperatures have greater than a 50 percent chance of being above average for most of the Southwest into early 2011 (Figures 10b–10c). Both the expectation of La Niña conditions and decadal warming trends contribute to the enhanced probability of above-average temperatures in the West.

Temperature Outlook
Notes:

These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1971–2000 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

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