Seasonal Drought Outlook

 (through November)
Data Source(s): NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

This summary is excerpted and edited from the July 15 Seasonal Drought Outlook technical discussion produced by the NOAA–Climate Prediction Center and written by forecasters A. Loconto and R. Tinker.

In the Southwest, an active monsoon circulation since mid-July has improved drought conditions across the region, although an area of abnormally dry and moderate drought persists in northern Arizona (Figure 12). In this area, rainfall totals in the past several months have been low. Even though NOAA–Climate Prediction Center’s six to ten- and eight to fourteen-day forecasts suggest that additional monsoon rains are possible in parts of this region through the remainder of August, rainfall is expected to become less likely as the North American Monsoon season ends in September. This indicator, and CPC’s long-lead seasonal forecasts, which also show a tilt in the odds toward dry conditions for the September–November period, suggests that drought will persist in northwestern Arizona. The CPC has moderate confidence in this forecast.

Elsewhere, an increase in late-spring precipitation in the northern Rockies and the Great Basin improved drought conditions. Across northern and central Louisiana ongoing drought continues and ranges in severity from abnormally dry in central Louisiana to severe drought in northern Louisiana. Heavy rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Depression #5 has led to some reduction in drought over central Louisiana in the past week. A substantial mid- to late-July heat wave, combined with spotty rainfall, has expanded drought from the mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley southward into southern Arkansas, while in the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes long-term drought has diminished in severity and coverage due to several rainfall episodes this summer.

Notes: