Wildland Fire Outlook

 (May–July 2012)
Data Source(s): National Interagency Coordination Center, Southwest Coordination Center

Significant wildfire potential is expected to increase from normal to above normal across most of Arizona and the western third of New Mexico during the May–July period, according to the April 1 seasonal fire outlook issued by the National Interagency Coordination Center’s Predictive Services (Figure 13). Significant wildfire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire will require additional fire-fighting resources from outside the area in which the fire originated.

Warmer- and drier-than-average conditions that characterized the winter and spring in most of Arizona and western New Mexico influence this outlook in countervailing ways. While these conditions contributed to the persistence of drought and low soil moistures—two factors that can prime the landscape for fires—they also have stunted the growth of grasses and small woody shrubs, which is expected to delay the onset of the wildfire season. Also, because grasses and shrubs are not as vigorous as they were one year ago, there is moderate confidence that large-scale fires will not be as widespread or frequent this summer as last.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), however, is a wildcard for the upcoming fire season. If El Niño conditions develop this summer—a slight possibility at present—the northwestern portions of the Southwest may experience cooler and wetter conditions than expected, while southeastern areas may see drier conditions. The ENSO forecasts will become clearer in upcoming months.

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