Home » April 2012 Southwest Climate Outlook » Temperature Outlook
Forecasts
Published April 25, 2012

Temperature Outlook

 (May–October 2012)
Data Source(s): NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The seasonal temperature outlooks issued by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in April call for increased odds that temperatures for the three-month seasons spanning May to October will be similar to the warmest 10 years in the 1981–2010 period (Figures 9a–d). For the May–July period, there is a 50 percent chance that temperatures will be 0.8–1.5 degrees F above average in most of Arizona and New Mexico. The highest temperature anomalies likely will be located in northern Arizona. The above-average temperatures for this period partly reflect recent warming trends. The outlooks also forecast more than a 50 percent chance of above-average temperatures in the summer months, also reflecting recent warming trends for the monsoon season. Although the atmosphere is still currently responding to the La Niña event, it is expected to transition into ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming weeks  (see page 19).  As a result, La Niña no longer influences these temperature outlooks, according to the CPC.

Seasonal Temperature Forcasts for the U.S.
Notes:

These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1981–2010 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where no forecast skill has been demonstrated or there is no clear climate signal; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

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