Temperature

Temperatures since the water year began on October 1 have averaged between 35 and 50 degrees Fahrenheit on the Colorado Plateau of Arizona and across the northwestern half of New Mexico (Figure 1a). Temperatures have been colder in the highest elevations in northern New Mexico and eastern Arizona, ranging between 25 and 35 degrees F. In the southwest deserts of Arizona, temperatures have been 50–65 degrees F.  These temperatures are within 1 degree F of average across most of Arizona and within 2 degrees F of average in most of New Mexico (Figure 1b). The warmest conditions have been in eastern New Mexico. Near-average temperatures across the region since October 1 mask considerable week-to-week variability caused by numerous storms. While many of these storms did not produce precipitation, they did lower temperatures. In the longer interim periods between storms, temperatures were generally above average.  

The Southwest was substantially warmer than average in the last 30 days, with an increasing temperature gradient from west to east (Figures 1c–d). Temperatures in eastern New Mexico, for example, were between 4 and 8 degrees F warmer than average, while temperatures in western New Mexico and northeastern Arizona were 2–6 degrees F warmer than average. This colder-to-warmer pattern emerged as several cold fronts moved across the region, slightly warming as they advanced east. These are the same storms that, after exiting the Southwest, intersected warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and generated severe thunderstorms and tornados over the Great Plains and upper Midwest.