In this Section:

	Background
	Project Overview
	Project Components:
	Seasonal Climate Outlooks
	Historical Water Supply Outlooks
	Ensemble Water Supply Outlooks
	Decision-Support Tools
	Status of Project
	References
	Related Links
	Contacts

Research and Products:
Forecast Evaluation

Status of Project

Our forecast evaluations have shown that seasonal climate and streamflow forecasts are far from perfect. However, for some locations and some seasons, forecasts have proven to be quite good. The challenge for CLIMAS researchers and decision makers is to match specific decisions with the skill level of the different forecasts that are available. We are continuing to develop techniques for assessing forecasts from a variety of different perspectives.

As research by CLIMAS and others improves our understanding about hydrologic variability and connections between global conditions and the hydrology of the Southwest, we will assess how the new findings can be incorporated into forecasts, and to what extent the advanced forecasts are really better than existing products. In addition, we will continue to focus on better ways to present forecast products so that they are informative but easy to understand.

As a step toward integrating different perspectives into forecasts, we began a spin-off project designed to encourage the integration of stakeholders in hydroclimatic research and outreach. Project activities include engaging stakeholders about hydroclimatology issues, results, and products derived from our research. The project goal is to identify research issues that can make systemic impacts on NOAA climate services while also serving the unique needs of the specific decision makers with whom we develop or maintain ongoing relationships. The objective of activities under this project is to advance the dialogue between stakeholders and our research team (and CLIMAS), both in terms of how decision makers can use the results and tools related to CLIMAS research, and in terms of decision maker needs for diverse types of hydroclimatic research, information, products, and tools.