| Figure 4. Map (a) shows the 1961-1990 average December-March temperature derived from our linear regression-based model, which takes into account topographic factors such as elevation, slope, aspect, latitude, and longitude. Map (b) shows the 1961-1990 average December-March temperature derived from interpolation (simple kriging) without regard to topographic factors. Note the fine detail made available by using our model, which will allow CLIMAS stakeholders to better home in on their region of interest. Map (c) shows interpolated predicted minus observed temperature (residuals). These values represent errors in prediction, i.e., variance in the data not captured by our temperature model. Underpredictions are shown as negative values (blue) and overpredictions are shown as positive values (red). The model is more successful across New Mexico; temperatures tend to be underpredicted around the Mogollon Rim in central Arizona. All units are in degrees Celsius. 10° Celsius is approximately equal to 50° Fahrenheit. |
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